There's good news and bad news in the auto industry.
The good news is that I predict we'll see a rash of new automakers, not unlike the early days of the auto when brands like AMC (ick) and Packard shared the road with Chevy and Buick. The barriers to entry are so much lower than they used to be, given there's so much excess industrial capacity in this country and abroad. If one could raise the capital, one could ship parts from all over the world and assemble in the US, vice versa or none of the above.
The bad news is that Detroit won't be the same. I think one of the things that has hurt GM is one of things I think they believed will help them. The rental car gave many a glimpse at what a GM experience is like, setting back their customer base for some time. I doubt GM will go away but hopefully they will change for the better, upgrading materials, cutting back on brands – more than two or three is a waste in my opinion – and revamping their dealer network.
How cars are sold in this country needs to change and I think the European model makes sense. We have laws that prevent automakers from selling direct to the consumer, with the result that we make far more cars than we need and put them on sale to get rid of them. In an era of green, taking the 'just in time' model and applying it to the sale of a car makes the most sense. The bad part of that is consumers won't be able to 'drive home in a new car today.' The good part is consumers will get exactly what they want. Personalization is so important today, particularly for Gen Y, that getting exactly what you want will be the norm. It wasn't that long ago that one waited for the car they wanted. I think those days are coming back.
I'm looking forward to seeing what the next twenty years of the car will bring.
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