Sunday, January 11, 2009

Palm Pre Thoughts

Last night I watched the Palm Pre introductory keynote address. In a nutshell, well done Palm. I haven't interacted with the device – note to self, I'm going to Vegas next year – but based on the address and other reviews, I think it will do well. Will it knock the iPhone off its' throne? I don't think so but it is certainly a better #2 than Blackberry's Storm. 

Overall thoughts
Overall, I think Palm did a great job of addressing many of the short-comings of the iPhone. However, so many of the improvements are borrowed from Mac OS or elements from the iPhone, I wonder how unique they will be once Apple addresses these short-comings in typical Apple fashion. If anything, WebOS gives me faith that Apple can address them easily. 

Palm and Apple have very different objectives so it's important to acknowledge where they will never meet. Let's face it. The iPhone/iPod Touch are both trojan horses into Mac land. It's a handheld device that runs the primary Mac OS, Leopard. Programming for the iPhone is meant to be similar to programming for Leopard, to give developers an incentive to take on both platforms. Therefore Apple will never let users stray too far from their computers, and preferably their Macs. 

Palm wants to rid the world of 'legacy' desktop/laptops by offering a platform that focuses on the 'cloud'. To me, the Pre is just the handheld version of Web OS. I am sure there will be a netbook version and maybe even a tablet version. If they are successful, Web OS could be a strong competitive OS that will shake the foundations of the PC market in a way even Leopard hasn't. Interesting times ahead.

A note on the address itself. Rubenstein makes a poor Steve Jobs; his delivery was wooden and often cringe worthy. Ed Culligan did a much better job at being relaxed and enthusiastic, energizing the crowd. I also think Palm was expecting a lot more visceral enthusiasm from the audience than they received. I would say at least half of the jokes didn't land well if at all. Areas where they expected oooohs and ahhhs received none. 

Part of the problem is Palm spent a lot of time linking the Pre/Web OS with previous Palms and cooing about how 'new' the paradigm was. Yet Web OS and the Pre feels so familiar. It borrows from  Mac OS X – Spaces and the Dock, to name a couple. It also borrows from the iPhone – curved back, accelerometer, single hardware button, touch/gestures, and the Card metaphor. An example of the Card metaphor is flicking through 'cards' of applications or different Safari pages appear to be individual cards. So on the face of it, the Palm Pre/Web OS feels like a Apple device, just not from Apple. 

Technology Review

I LOVE my iPhone, as I am sure is obvious, but there are a few areas that get on my nerves at times. This list is long but keep in mind I've been using this thing from the beginning. None of them detract from the excitement of using the device but they certainly ding certain experiences. 
  • Single task orientation: I'm often doing a few things at once yet the iPhone can only do one thing at a time. Taking an example from yesterday, using the clock as a kitchen timer, using the Remote app to control my Apple TV, and using a recipe I stored in Evernote, a note keeping application. Plus, every time I open an app, it starts from scratch, wasting time. 
  • Messaging interrupts other functions: Getting phone calls in the middle of a game often quits the game. Texts appear out of no where and it's hard to remember to return to them once you've dismissed them. 
  • Weak tasks functionality: Sometimes I wonder if the folks at Apple use tasks to get their work done because the native task management both iCal and the iPhone suck at it. Why can't I sync and interact with To-Dos in iCal and Mail.app? Why doesn't the iPhone have a call database where it captures and allows me to work with whom I've called and who calls me? GTD is difficult because there's a separation between my calendar and my tasks and they are supposed to be linked. 
  • No cut & paste: I should not need to use my memory to re-enter an address that someone sends me in a text or an email. Even without cut & paste, Leopard has data detectors that recognize time and place information that should be brought over to the iPhone. 
  • Keyboard foibles: I don't hate the keyboard and find it reasonably easy to use. However one thing that annoys me is how much space it takes up. Three or four lines on a screen so narrow is sometimes only two sentences and it's not easy to scroll up.
  • Weak email client: It's better than it used to be but the lack of a unified inbox slows things down.
  • Fixed memory: This is the main reason why the iPhone does not have video capture. I'm sure the limitations on removable media are linked to restrictions from the music/video industry. Now that DRM is being stripped from the iTunes store, this situation will hopefully change. 
  • No flash on the camera – most camera phone flashs are crap but something is better than nothing
  • Weak phone / Network: The best 3G reception I've had was in flat uncrowded Minneapolis. It rarely works in my apartment and works intermittently throughout swaths of NYC. I hope the recent bandwidth switch for EDGE will improve things, albiet on the backs of EDGE users.
  • Mobile Safari: I love how it renders pages but it's unstable. Sometimes it quits after a few minutes.
Palm addressed many of these, in some ways blowing the doors off the iPhone. 
  • Unified messaging: Messaging is focused on the person not the service. These leads to seamless conversations: start in IM > move to Text > jump to voice > back to Text > back to IM. Most importantly, one has a record of all of your interactions, which the average businessperson needs. 
    • Con: It's easier to forget which address one is using, increasing the likelihood you send something to someone you don't want to send or use an address you don't want to use. For example, a celebrity posts sex pix to  Facebook instead of sending it to the gal in question via email.
  • Better PIM functionality: The Pre retains Palm strengths in terms of calendar management – especially the week at a glance view and the ability to press a button to switch to another calendar vs. sliding back and forth. I'm sure task management is also as strong as previous Palms
  • Fewer interruptions: The gesture bar and display at the bottom doesn't interrupt you with alerts as on the iPhone. Plus the windows resize to make critical data important, so you don't lose your flow just because a call comes in. 
  • Sprint network: more consistent data connection than AT&T
  • Power Puck: a totally rad way to charge your device – just set it on this hockey puck looking thing. Most awesome thing I've seen in power/cable management.
  • Universal Search: you just start typing and appropriate stuff shows up, even if that means a Google search. Time saver.
  • Even easier to program than the iPhone: iPhone webapps failed because the data network couldn't deliver a constant enough connection to make 'cloud' data easy to access. Palm fixes that using a more consistent data network and an auto-save function that saves your data from 'hiccups' like a lost connection. It may also be easier for developers to monetize their applications through advertising, something the iPhone isn't that good at.
  • Cut & Paste: Nuff said
In spite of these competitive threats, I still believe Apple will retain the lead. 
  • Apple Stores: Sprint is gearing itself up to be the Apple Store for the Palm but I doubt they will be able to deliver the product story as well as the folks that work at the Apple Store. Plus there will be fewer opportunities to cross sell products that adds to Palm's bottom line, namely a Mac
  • iTunes Store: It's the number one retailer of music and video, in spite of the competition. The removal of DRM will make it easier for others to compete but it's still the first place people go for music thanks to the iPod user base. Will people break for Amazon and abandon iTunes?
  • Penetration: there are a lot of iPhones and iPod Touches out there, which means a huge global customer base for  applications. As of December, 300 million applications have been downloaded.  People are making millions from iPhone apps. In researching this point, I discovered someone I know personally. 
  • First to market: There are over 10,000 applications available and more in development. That's a huge lead.
  • Economies of scale for a global domination: Say what you want about a soft keyboard, it makes it easy for one to sell one or two SKUs around the world with simple software localization. This is especially important in critical markets that do not use Roman alphabets, namely Japan, China, India, Korea and Russia.
  • Multilingual capapilities: Related to the switchable keyboard, sometimes people speak more than one language or come from one place but live in another. Shocking. Being able to switch from English to your native keyboard and language and then back to English is really helpful. 
  • The iPhone is out now: While the Palm announcement showed a concrete device, there are many unknowns, including cost and availability. Many of the UI foibles on the iPhone/Touch outlined above can be addressed with a single software update, especially multi-tasking. Judging by their Apple's own schedule, June is iPhone month and a hardware update could be imminent, which could stop Palm's momentum. 
  • Sprint: The company has the worst customer service of the big three networks and lost over 3 million customers in the first three quarters of 2008. Probably most of them flocked to AT&T. Sprint did a mea culpa in the keynote but it remains to be seen if they have improved things enough to retain the customers they have much less attract new ones. 
So all in all, I think great things will come from this announcement. The legions of Apple haters will have a competent device to obsess over. Palm fans will find redemption in their loyalty. Apple gets a solid competitor and be forced to up their game even more. Blackberry will have another whip cracking on their backs and get to work on improving the woeful Storm. And Microsoft will have just another line shining on how much work Windows Mobile truly needs.

Competition is a wonderful thing. 

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